Classic Blackjack features 4 decks, no side bets, betting limits between 1 and 3000 and with normal rules (i.e. Dealer stands on all 17s, doubles allowed on 9,10,11). Basic strategy should be used and the only difference between this variation and the others is that Classic Blackjack allows the player to choose to play alongside other players. Most casual blackjack players have a smaller bankroll than the MIT team. As such, our betting strategy modifies their bet sizing table in order to reduce variance for small bankrolls. Our Betting Strategy. Players bet the minimum when the true count is near 0 or less than 0. We use a system where the betting unit matches the table minimum.
By Henry Tamburin
One of the most often asked questions from players about blackjack strategy, is 'how should I bet?' You've got several options and I'll discuss them in this article and offer my recommendation.
Flat Bet Blackjack Strategy
This means betting the same amount all the time. Most players don't like to bet this way because they figure if the dealer wins more hands then them they'll never win any money. Also players feel it's boring betting this way. They prefer the thrill of sometimes betting more in the hopes that when they do so, they will win the hand and make a nice profit.
Here are the facts on the flat betting blackjack strategy. If you bet say $5 on every hand in a standard multiple deck game the house will have an edge of 0.5% against the skilled basic strategy player. That means you will lose on average 0.5% of every wager you make. So if you bet $10 on every hand and average 80 hands per hour you will have made a total of $800 worth of bets. The casino expects to earn 0.5% of the $800 or $4.00. Of course the more likely result is that you'll win or lose much more than $4 after an hour of play. But on average you can expect over time to lose at the rate of $4 per hour.
Let's take an example of a player flat betting $10 on every hand. It's is a conservative betting strategy that leads to a relatively low theoretical loss rate. The fluctuation in this player's bankroll will also be low which means the likelihood he'll have a big winning or losing session is not great.
Progressive Betting Blackjack Strategy
This is where things get interesting. The Progressive betting blackjack strategy is when players vary their bets in some way from one hand to the next rather than always betting the same amount on every hand. There are all different types of betting progressions but they all have one common denominator. You either decrease or increase your next bet depending upon whether the hand you just played won or lose.
Win progressions encourage you to increase your bet size after a winning hand. For example you make a minimum bet of $10 and if you win, you raise your next stakes on next hand to $20.
There are all different kinds of win progressions. The most common is a 1-2-3-5 progression. This means you increase your bet by the above multiples after each winning hand but as soon as you experience a loss, you start the progression over with a 1 unit bet.
Proponents of win progressions will tell you that you'll win more money if you win 5 consecutive hands compared to the amount you lose if you lose 5 consecutive hands. Of course what they don't tell you is that you never know when that 5 consecutive winning hand streak will occur.
There are also betting progressions in which you increase your bet following a loss. These Martingale type betting progression are dangerous and you should never consider using them.
There is also hybrid betting progressions, which have you increase your bets following a win, but after two or three success wins you lock up some profit and gradually regress your bets. The creativity of progressive bettors is never ending.
First of all, blackjack strategy for betting progressions do not change the 0.5% house edge one iota. There has never been a correlation between the hand just won (or lost) and you chance of winning the next hand. In other words using the criteria of the result of one hand (W/L) to base how you bet on the next hand has no scientific validity. So betting progressions in the long run don't work in the sense that they won't improve your long-term chances of winning.
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But here's what betting progressions will do. First off they increase the fluctuation in your session bankroll compared to flat betting. This means you can win more using a betting progression compared to flat betting but you can also lose more. Secondly, betting progressions will increase the amount of money you wager per hour compared to flat betting. If a $10 bettor uses a 1-2-3-5 betting progression, his average bet will $20. Over an hour he will average $20 times 80 hands or $1600 worth of bets. The casinos expected win is 0.5% of $1600 or $8. In other words a $10 progressive bettor stands to lose twice as much per hour as a $10 flat bettor.
Here's a tip to save you some money in the long run if you insist on using a betting progression. Instead of starting your progression at $10, start at a lower amount (ie. $5). This will reduce your average bet to $10 per hour and cut you hourly theoretical loss rate in half.
But in the long run flat betting and betting progressions don't work in the sense they won't change the house edge against you and you will lose in the long run. So what betting system works? That my friends is card counting.
Betting When You Have The Edge (Card Counting)
With card counting you know when you have the edge based on the change in the composition of the decks and therefore you'll know when it's the right time to bet more. So unlike betting progressions that are based on whether you win or lose the previous hands, card counting is based on the mix of cards that were played on previous hands. If more small value cards were played in previous rounds, there are more big value cards left in the unplayed cards and the edge shifts from dealer to player. This would be the best time to bet more.
But I'm realist. Not a whole lot of average blackjack players have the time or mental concentration during play that is required to master one of the popular point count card counting systems. These are readily available in blackjack books. But even though millions of blackjack books have been sold since Ed Thorp's classic book, Beat The Dealer (circa 1962) first revealed card counting to the masses, the number of players who can successful win money in the long run at blackjack number in the hundreds and thousands.
So what's the answer to betting at blackjack for the average player? I asked Don Pronovost that same question about four years ago. Don is a software developer that markets blackjack training software. He spent the better part of two years and a trillion computer simulated hands looking for the solution to this dilemma. What he developed is Speed Count.
Speed Count is unlike any conventional card counting system. It's much simpler to master and requires much less concentration when you play. And unlike progressive betting systems, Speed Count will give you a verifiable advantage over the casino You can read about Speed Count in Frank Scoblete’s book, Golden Touch Blackjack Revolution.
Now that you know the scoop on betting at blackjack, I wish you many aces and faces the next time you play.
Henry Tamburin has been a respected casino gambling writer for the past 50 years. He is the author of the Ultimate Blackjack Strategy Guide and was editor of the Blackjack Insider newsletter. You can read his latest articles on blackjack, video poker, and his personal playing experiences at https://www.888casino.com/blog/writers/henry-tamburin
There's more to mastering any game than a fundamental understanding of how to play. You must also know the customs of the game and how to finnesse the rules.
Etiquette
When you sit down at a table, wait for the dealer to finish the hand in progress. Then you may buy chips by placing currency on the layout, pushing it toward the dealer, and saying, 'Change, please.'
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Do not leave currency in the betting box on the table. In most newer gaming jurisdictions, casinos are not allowed to accept cash bets. However, casinos in some places allow cash bets with the call 'Money plays.' Don't leave the dealer wondering if that $100 bill is a request for change or a bet on the next hand.
Once you make a bet, keep your hands off the chips in the betting box until the hand is over.
If you are betting chips of different denominations, stack them with the smallest denomination on top. If you put a larger denomination on top, the dealer will rearrange them before going on with the hand. It's one way the casino guards against someone attempting to add a large-denomination chip to their bet after the outcome is known.
In multiple-deck games, give playing decisions with hand signals. In single- or double-deck games dealt facedown, pick up the cards with one hand, scratch the table with the cards for a hit, and slide the cards under your chips to stand. Turn the cards faceup if you bust or if you wish to split pairs or double down. At the conclusion of play, let the dealer turn faceup any cards under your chips.
If you are a novice, you might want to avoid the last seat at the table, the one all the way to the players' left. This is called 'third base,' and the player here is the last to play before the dealer. Although in the long run bad plays will help other players as much as they hurt them, in the short term other players will notice if a mistake by the third baseman costs them money. For example, the dealer shows a 6, the third baseman has 12 and hits a 10 to bust. The dealer turns up a 10 for 16, then draws a 5 for 21, beating all players at the table. The third baseman is likely to take heat from other players for taking the dealer's bust card instead of standing. If you don't want the heat, sit elsewhere.
If you wish to use the rest room and return to the same seat, you may ask the dealer to mark your place. A clear plastic disk will be placed in your betting box as a sign that the seat is occupied.
The House Edge
Because the player hands are completed first, the players have the chance to bust before the dealer plays. And the house wins whenever the player busts, regardless of how the dealer's hand winds up. That is the entire source of the casino's advantage in blackjack. Because of this one edge, the casino will win more hands than the player, no matter how expert.
The casino gives back some of this advantage by paying 3-2 on blackjack, allowing players to see one of the dealer's cards, and by allowing the player to double down and split pairs. To take advantage of these options, the player must learn proper strategy.
Basic Strategy
Played well, blackjack becomes a game of skill in a casino full of games of chance. Studies of millions of computer-generated hands have yielded a strategy for when to hit, when to stand, when to double, when to split. This strategy can take the house edge down to about 0.5 percent in a six-deck game -- and lower in games with fewer decks. In a single-deck game in which the dealer stands on all 17s and the player is allowed to double down after splits, a basic strategy player can even gain an edge of 0.1 percent over the house. Needless to say, such single-deck games are not commonly dealt.
Compare those percentages with players who adopt a never-bust strategy, standing on all hands of 12 or more so that drawing a 10 will not cause them to lose before the dealer's hand is played, to players who use dealer's strategy, always hitting 16 or less and standing on 17 or more. These players face a house edge estimated at 5 percent — about 10 times the edge faced by a basic strategy player.
Basic strategy takes advantage of the player's opportunity to look at one of the dealer's cards. You're not just blindly trying to come as close to 21 as possible. By showing you one card, the dealer allows you to make an educated estimate of the eventual outcome and play your cards accordingly.
One simple way to look at it is to play as if the dealer's facedown card is a 10. Since 10-value cards (10, jack, queen, king) comprise four of the 13 denominations in the deck, that is the single most likely value of any unseen card. Therefore, if you have 16 and the dealer's up-card is a 7, you are guessing that the most likely dealer total is 17. The dealer would stand on 17 to beat your 16; therefore, you must hit the 16 to have the best chance to win.
On the other hand, if you have 16 and the dealer's up-card is a 6, your assumption would be that his total is 16, making the dealer more likely than not to bust on the next card. Therefore, you stand on 16 versus 6.
That's an oversimplification, of course, but very close to the way the percentages work out when the effect of multiple-card draws are taken into account.
The most common decision a player must make is whether to hit or stand on a hard total -- a hand in which there is no ace being used as an 11. Basic strategy begins with the proper plays for each hard total faced by the player. You can refer to this simple chart:
Many players seem to hit the wall at 16 and stand regardless of the dealer's up-card. But that 16 is a loser unless the dealer busts, and the dealer will make 17 or better nearly 80 percent of the time with a 7 or higher showing. The risk of busting by hitting 16 is outweighed by the likelihood you'll lose if you stand.
Basic strategy for hard totals is straightforward enough, but when it comes to soft totals many players become confused. They seem lost, like the player aboard a riverboat in Joliet, Illinois, who wanted to stand on ace-5 --a soft 16-- against a dealer's 6. The dealer asked if he was sure, and another player piped in, 'You can't HURT that hand,' so the player finally signaled for a hit. He drew a 5 to total 21 and was all grins.
In a facedown game, no friendly advice is available. Once, at a downtown Las Vegas casino, the dealer busted, meaning all players who hadn't busted won. One player turned up two aces and a three. 'Winner five!' the dealer called out. Though it worked out that time, five (or 15) never wins without the dealer busting, and the player could have drawn at least one more card without busting. That's too big an edge to give away.
Nothing you could draw could hurt a soft 16, or a soft 15, or many other soft totals. Just as with hard totals, guesswork is unnecessary. A basic strategy tells you to what to do with soft hands.
The hand of ace and 6 is the most misplayed hand in blackjack. People who understand that the dealer always stands on 17 and that the player stands on hard 17 and above seem to think 17 is a good hand, but the dealer must bust for 17 to win. If the dealer does not bust, the best 17 can do is tie. By hitting soft 17, you have a chance to improve it by drawing ace, 2, 3, or 4, or leave it the same with 10-jack-queen-king. That's eight of 13 cards that either improve the hand or leave it no worse. And even if the draw is 5, 6, 7, 8, or 9, you have another chance to draw if the dealer shows 7 or better, and you're still in position to win if the dealer busts while showing 2 through 6, and all you've given up is a chance to tie a 17. You can refer to this chart for soft-hand strategies:
Standing on soft 18 will lose the player money in the long run when the dealer shows 9, 10, or ace. When the dealer shows 3 through 6, the chances of the dealer busting are strong enough to make doubling down the best play here.
The final category of hands consists of those in which the first two cards match. Then the player must decide whether or not to split the pair into two hands. You can refer to this chart for pair splitting advice:
Some Strategy Variations: Double Down After Splits Permitted
Many casinos allow the player to double down after splitting pairs. This is a good rule for players -- in fact, any rule that allows a player an option is a good one if the player knows when to take advantage of the option. If you split 8s against a 6, for example, and a 3 is dealt to your first 8, you now are playing this hand as an 11, and it is to your advantage to double down if the house allows it.
If the casino allows doubling after splits, the following strategy variations are necessary:
If you have 2, 2; 3, 3: Split against 2 through 7 instead of 4 through 7.
If you have 4, 4: Split against 5 and 6 instead of just hitting against all.
If you have 6, 6: Split against 2 through 6 instead of 3 through 6.
Single-Deck Blackjack
You can find many single-deck games in Nevada, and they pop up occasionally in other parts of the country. You will need a few variations for single-deck blackjack. Basic strategy is much the same as in the multiple-deck game, with a few twists, given below:
If you have 11: Double down against all dealer up cards.
If you have 9: The difference comes when the dealer shows a 2. In multiple-deck you hit; in single-deck, double down.
If you have 8: Double down against 5 and 6.
If you are holding ace, 8: As good as that 19 looks, it is to the player's advantage to double down against a 6. Stand against all else.
If you are holding ace, 7: Stand against an ace, unless you are playing in a casino in which the dealer hits soft 17. In that case, hit.
If you are holding ace, 6: Double against 2 through 6.
If you are holding ace, 3 or ace, 2: Double against 4, 5, and 6.
If you are holding 2, 2: Where doubling after splits is not allowed, split against 3 through 7 in a single-deck game. Otherwise, follow the same strategy as in multiple-deck games.
Blackjack Betting Guide
If you are holding 3, 3: If doubling after splits is permitted, split against 2 through 8.
If you are holding 4, 4: If doubling after splits is permitted, split against 4 through 6.
If you are holding 6, 6: If doubling after splits is permitted, split against 2 through 7; if not, split against 2 through 6.
How To Bet Strategy In Blackjack
If you are holding 7, 7: If doubling after splits is permitted, split against 2 through 8. Also, stand against a 10 in the single-deck game.
Blackjack Betting Strategy
In our final section, you will learn the most advanced strategy for playing blackjack -- counting cards.